How strategically muslims vote? An illustration from Delhi elections.

Will so called secular, intellectuals and liberals read the writing on the wall, written in big bold letters?

It is often discussed,  muslims vote strategically with a clear objective to defeat BJP. Data compiled(courtesy Dainik Jagaran, Delhi edition, dated 14.02.2020) on voting pattern for seven heavily muslim dominated assembly constituencies for recent Loksabha and Vidhansabha elections in Delhi suggest the same.

During Loksabha elections, in Okhla assembly segment, Cong got 37.18% but same reduced to mere 2.59% during assembly elections. On the other hand, however voting %  of AAP during LS elections in Okhla assembly segment was mere 26.83%, however just within six months, same vote % in Okhla for AAP swelled to 66.03%.

In matiamahal, vote % for Cong has reduced from 65.17% to 3.85%; however during the same six months' period, vote% for AAP swelled from 8.4% to 75.96%

In Ballimaran, vote% for Cong reduced from 53.97% to 4.73%; however during the same period, voting % for AAP swelled from 8.97% to 64.65%.

More or less, same is the picture for other four muslim dominated constituencies in Delhi.

Now, let us ponder over this contrasting fortunes for Cong & AAP during a gap of last  six months. Did congress do something drastically wrong for muslims so that same invited wrath of muslims towards Cong? Probably answer is no. In fact, Congress did everything to pamper muslims. Congress opposed scrapping of article 370, bitterly opposed triple talaaq, CAA, showed it's discomfiture, when Ram Mandir verdict came. On the other hand, AAP  supported #370 and even though opposed CAA, it   maintained distance from Shaheen Bag protests.

So, events of last six months suggest that Congress did all the pampering of muslims but AAP, consciously avoided to be seen openly along with muslims.

When Cong so openly supported muslims , why it was so much  punished by muslim voters? Answer to the same is simple, muslims strategically vote to defeat BJP. During Loksabha elections, Congress under aggressive,  Rahul Gandhi was on high and hence almost all muslims preferred Cong to AAP;,however death of Shiela Dixit left Delhi unit of Congress rudderless and dimmed the prospects of Cong during assembly elections. And hence for muslims, AAP was better placed to defeat BJP and hence almost all muslims switched over from Cong to AAP.

Hope so called  secular, intellectuals and liberals may be able to  read  writing on the wall so clearly"muslims vote strategically to defeat BJP, only party feeling unashamed about protecting genuine  interests of hindus  and hindutva" but probably they can't read the same written so clearly in big bold letters because for so called secular, intellectuals and liberals among hindus, anything associated with hindus and hindutva is communalism and for them abusing hindus and making fun of hindutva is the  only form of secularism.

AAP plus Cong: Will arithmetic logic behind alliance work?

Kejriwal, finally, has his way;  Congress decides to   commit suicide; gives fresh lease of life to AAP.

In the ultimate analysis, however, BJP will be the winner on almost all the seats, albeit with reduced margins.

Months of persuasion, coercion, deception,blackmailing by Kejriwal and finally Kejriwal is close to achieving, what he targetted for. Rahul Gandhi through his crony PC Chacko coerces local leadership of Congress to agree to his decision of  committing  "harakiri" and giving fresh lease of life to AAP. The alliance not only extinguishes any hope of Congress to become a ruling party or at least  2nd largest party in Delhi in near future but it also gives opportunity to AAP to survive in Delhi to Cong's disadvantage and find foothold in Haryana, where it  is hardly a political force to reckon with for its rivals.

The alliance decision of two parties is guided by simple arithmetic i.e. 33% of AAP(in 2014) + 15% of Cong(in 2014)  >   46.9% of BJP(in 2014)

However, will the Cong-AAP alliance at ground level  follow the above  arithmetic rationale?

As, I understand, Alliance may serve its limited purpose to the extent that division of Muslim votes shall be prevented. Now, Muslim voters will have no dilemma, whether to vote for AAP or Congress. With two parties coming together, there will be consolidation of Muslim votes against BJP. Even in cluster areas too, AAP shall manage to have marginal edge ( but not like previous three elections) over BJP but most of other sections of society, especially middle class, which voted for AAP in previous elections, due to ideological reasons, are feeling totally cheated by decision of AAP to align with Congress, the very party, against which Anna's anti corruption movement was launched  and which ultimately  helped newbie AAP under Kejriwal to come to power in Delhi in a grand way. As a consequence, despite consolidation of Muslim votes in favour of Cong-AAP alliance, the number of votes for alliance mayn't be enough to offset the loss of votes of other sections of society, especially middle class. Also, if there is consolidation of Muslim votes in favour of AAP-Cong alliance, we may expect corresponding polarization  of votes among voters of majority community too. Besides that Delhi's majority of voters continue to look at Modi as preferred choice for centre and nationalist sentiments after Pulwama attack continue to dominate mood of voters.

In a nutshell, although AAP-Cong alliance may  pose serious challenge for BJP in Delhi;however, ultimately BJP may win almost all the seats in Delhi, albeit with reduced margins.